Petrol prices expected to drop at the pump
• April 15, 2025
New Zealanders are feeling pressure at the pump, but prices are starting to ease. Photo: Joseph McGee
New Zealanders are expected to get some respite from the cost-of-living crisis as petrol prices are predicted to have a substantial drop for the first time since 2023.
Since 2023, the average price of premium petrol has risen from $2.48 to $2.95 and regular 91-petrol from $2.33 to $2.77 in 2025.
On April 15, the price declines were already seen at the pump. According to the fuel app Gaspy, a litre of unleaded 91 petrol costs $2.57, a decrease of 4.7% in the past 28 days.
In a statement issued to TWN, Z Specialist Kiri Shannon says the cost of fuel is shaped by various factors.
“Decisions Z makes regarding any price changes (up or down) are based on multiple price inputs.”
“Some of which include global market fluctuations, shipping and freight costs, the price of carbon and local competitive pressures.”
The main reason for the fall in prices is the increase in oil production.
On March 3, eight OPEC+ countries announced on March 3 that they will increase oil production to 2.2 million barrels per day from the start of April.
Additionally, the eight countries will increase production by a further 411,000 barrels per day from May 2025.
ANZ senior economist Miles Workman says petrol prices in New Zealand largely depend on global commodity costs.
“A key input into petrol refinery is commodity prices. If we see oil prices move, you'll likely see that at the pump almost instantly.”
“In recent oil markets, constrained supply, influenced by OPEC’s decision to release oil into the market, has been a key factor in petrol prices.”
Since the closure of Marsden Point Oil Refinery in 2022, New Zealand’s oil imports have shifted towards global markets for refined products.
In a statement to TWN, MBIE Senior Communications Advisor Nora Maarleyeld says New Zealand has little influence over the global oil supply which drives prices, but it does have obligations through international partnerships.
“As a member of the International Energy Agency (IEA), New Zealand has an obligation to maintain 90 days of oil stocks, which we hold in large part as offshore oil tickets.”
“If there is a significant oil supply disruption, IEA member countries can agree to collective action to deal with the disruption.”
“Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, 182.7 million barrels of oil were released, alleviating short-term pressures.”
